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Economy - 2 Cents
Posted by: Mark Nichols

28 Apr 2008


Oooh - we're set to find out on Wednesday if the US economy grew or declined in the first quarter. Analysts think there was .2% growth. Warren Buffett thinks we're in a recession, although he admits it's not his expertise. We need 2 quarters in a row of decline to officially be in a recession.

I vote for growth. And pulling this out of nowhere, .4% growth. Stock market boom followed by quick decline the next day, while holding some of the gains.

And it'll rain in NYC on Friday, September 5th, 2008. (I have access to an amazing forecast machine.)
© 2008 Dime Brothers
Category: Finance/Business    

Reader Comments:

Economy
 
Here's a quote from an article on Yahoo:

"Many analysts were predicting that the gross domestic product (GDP) would weaken a bit more — to a pace of just 0.5 percent — in the first quarter. Earlier this year, some economists thought the economy would actually lurch into reverse during the opening quarter. Now, they say they believe that will likely happen during the current April-to-June period."

Wait a second - the article I read the other day said analysts were predicting 0.2% growth. I guess this article clears itself by saying "some" analysts.

Their excuse for being wrong is basically: "We were wrong, but we'll be right eventually if we just keep repeating our guesses."
30 Apr 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
Here's an interesting quote from a CNNMoney.com article from some guy:

"The idea that you must have two negative quarters of GDP to have a recession is completely wrong," he said. "By that measure there was no recession in 2001 when we lost millions of jobs and half the value of the stock market. No one denies there was a recession then."
30 Apr 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
And once again, the first quarter was not negative growth. So if you're keeping score at home, that's still NO quarters with negative growth since the first quarter of 2002, I believe. Nevertheless, experts were quick to say, for the second year running, that the next quarter would surely see negative growth. (Not that any of this matters, cause inflation is out to get us all. Quick, hide the kids, inflation's coming!!)
01 May 2008
Paul 
Economy
 
The "experts" are batting 0. Here's a quote from an article stolen from CNN.com.

"According to the Labor Department, there was a net loss of 20,000 jobs in April, less than the revised loss of 81,000 jobs in the March and lower than the net loss of 75,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

As a result, the unemployment rate dropped to 5% from 5.1% in the March report."

Everyone seems eager to paint such a bleak picture that I think they're forgetting that things aren't that bleak on the whole.
02 May 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
Report suggests current economic downturn may not end soon.

The Wall Street Journal (5/5, A2, Ip) reports that the U.S. may be feeling economic pain for a long time. Though stocks are up, "[i]t's common in a crisis for markets to hit bottom long before the economy does. That's because markets are forward-looking, and because economic weakness is the way the underlying imbalances that produced a crisis are corrected." Also, the "current crisis is different" from preceding ones, as "even now, [home] prices are above most estimates of sustainable levels, and household saving has barely picked up." The Journal points to South Korea's financial crisis as a parallel. It "peaked on Dec. 24, 1997," but the country's recovery didn't begin until 1999. Afterwards, "capital investment never fully recovered," and "economic growth, while a healthy four percent to five percent, hasn't returned to the pre-crisis pace." Still, the "risk for the U.S. is that weakness goes beyond the correction of housing excesses, and begins to feed back into the financial system and then, again, hurts the wider economy."
05 May 2008
Paul 
Economy
 
Here's another article showing how the experts underestimated the US economy - this time on productivity. Maybe they'll get it right next quarter.
07 May 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
Here's an article on the economy that explains why all the seemingly good news recently is not really good news. I didn't read the entire article, because I don't like to read things that don't agree with my preconceived notions.

That's also why I stay from articles written by that Paul guy. Don't trust 'im.

: )
11 May 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
The New York Times on 5/9 published that the "number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits dropped much more than expected last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday...The department said that applications for unemployment benefits fell to 365,000, a decline of 18,000 from the previous week. Economists expected a decrease of about 5,000."

Nevertheless, economists pressed on with the pessimism, stating that "they expect layoffs to rise in the coming months as the unemployment rate climbs higher."

Didn't they just say, by looking at the numbers, that unemployment went down? I'm just looking at the data they present and am having trouble seeing how I could be misinterpreting it.

Goodness. We need to start teaching civics and finance in high school as soon as possible!
12 May 2008
Paul 
Economy
 
Here's a Yahoo article that mentions some economists' expectations actually being met. It's a miracle.
13 May 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
Economists are finally...we won't say "admitting their mistakes", but...perhaps..."changing their minds."
--------------------------------------------

In a front-page story, the Wall Street Journal (5/14, A1, Evans, Lahart) reports that a "funny thing happened to the economy on its way to recession: It's taken a detour." That "is the view of a growing number of economists -- including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable. They note that stock and credit markets have steadily improved since the Federal Reserve intervened to keep Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy in early March, while a series of economic reports have been stronger than expected." Wachovia economist Jay Bryson "now puts the odds of recession at 45 percent, down from 90 percent in April, and expects growth in gross domestic product of 0.6 percent at an annual rate in the first and second quarters of this year, followed by 1.2 percent growth in the third and fourth quarters." The Journal notes, however, that "plenty of economic warning signs remain, as reflected in plunging consumer confidence data and polls reflecting deep unease among voters."

In the Economic Scene column in the front of the New York Times's (5/14, C1) Business Day section, David Leonhardt agrees, writing that "only a month ago," the "notion that the economy could avoid a recession altogether seemed fanciful. It looks less fanciful today." He believes that "the economy seems to have stabilized," pointing out that the "pace of layoffs has eased a bit, stocks have risen and the Fed has signaled that the rate cuts are over for now." So "you can make an argument that the economy has survived its period of maximum danger."
14 May 2008
Paul 
Economy
 
An article on the 'recession'

Decent read considering all that's been linked to on this site recently.
27 May 2008
Mark 
Economy
 
I guess it's only fair to link to an article talking about the poor economy, instead of only to articles where people underestimate our economy's strength.

Unemployment rate up
06 Jun 2008
Mark 

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